Friday, October 19, 2012

India and its Diaspora


What does a population of twenty two million mean? For the sake of comparison, it is same as the population of Australia or Taiwan. It is same as Belgium and Sweden put together or thrice the population of Hong Kong. Twenty two million can be a strong number and can do remarkable things. This is how big the Indian Diaspora is. Spread across the world from the USA to Kiribati and North Korea. Indians have been travelling east and west since early middle ages (trade with current day Indonesia and Malaysia in east and Tanzania in the west). Many Indians settled in East Africa and gradually moved westward to Uganda and as far west as Nigeria. Common colonial rule was a great facilitator in movement of Indians to far off places. Some times as administrative and military assistants, sometimes as traders and sometimes as slaves (on sugar plantations of Mauritius and Caribbean). By the time India gained independence and the term Diaspora was well established, Indians were everywhere.

Ethnic Indians now work in different professions in different countries. They own supermarket chains in Africa, shipping companies in Djibouti, airline in Malaysia, head banks in Germany, run state governments in the US, and so on. The Diaspora is well spread out both in terms of geography and employment. They are a mixed bunch with high end jobs as mentioned above and low end jobs (mostly in the Middle East and to some extent in North America). Twenty two million people of Indian origin and nonresident Indians are sitting on a vast cash pile. In 2011 India received inward remittances to the tune of USD 63.3 billion from non residents. Prediction for 2012-13 are close to USD 75 billion, a bit lower than the current account deficit for last fiscal (USD 78.2 billion). While non residents have limited options of parking their money, the ethnic Indians or people of Indian origin (who are no longer Indian citizens) have a much wider choice of investments. India can tap them.

Please give us more than just hand gestures 
A comparison in Upendra Kachru’s (the first CEO of Maruti Suzuki) book, "India: Land of a Billion Entrepreneurs", of Indian and Chinese FDI inflow states that China receives almost two thirds of its FDI from Chinese Diaspora compared to India’s under 5%. India has a long way to go before it can successfully attract capital from its Diaspora. The government of India has made it easy for ethnic and nonresident Indians to park money in small investment instruments like bank accounts and fixed deposits, but there is a lack of opportunity to invest in big ticket projects which would contribute to the overall growth of economy and infrastructure development. Long gestation periods of key projects and vulnerability to corruption is one big reason why individuals shy away from investments.

Of late initiatives like overseas Indian facilitation centre (OIFC), a public private partnership between ministry of overseas Indian affairs and confederation of Indian industries (an Indian chamber of commerce) have been set up, but with little success. Long winded processes and bureaucracy holds everything back. A highly understaffed external affairs ministry is another hurdle. A city state like Singapore has more diplomats serving across the globe than India has. Indian embassies and consulates abroad are more representative of a sluggish government authority back home rather than a conduit of business. Rude and indifferent staff can make simple procedures (like obtaining signatures to attest documents) a harrowing experience.  

L.N Mittal, owner of world’s largest steel company, Arcelor Mittal and an ethnic Indian has given up on investments in India. In the past years he tried to build steel plants in Eastern Indian states of Orissa and Jharkhand but the government failed miserably to even provide the land for the plant. Indian growth story is on a bumpy ride and there are twenty two million people willing to invest. India needs to tidy up its home and set the right policies to attract investment. Staffing the external affairs ministry will be a good start. 

Thursday, October 4, 2012

The subsidy darlings

Earlier this month the government finally took a bold step to bring down the subsidy bill. It announced increase in price of diesel and a cap on number of subsidized LPG cylinders to just six per year (in some congress ruled states it is since revised up to nine per year). The news enraged the Facebook using Indian middle class. The twitterati went berserk with innovative tweets and the country shut down for a day in protest. Well, almost. However, of all the people upset by diesel price hike, people driving diesel SUVs were the worst hit.


Please do not snatch our crutches 
According to the ministry of petroleum and natural gas, in the year 2010-11, the government gave a subsidy of USD 637 million on Public Distribution System (PDS) Kerosene and domestic LPG (Liquefied petroleum gas). On top of this the oil marketing companies made an under-recovery of USD 17.1 billion. The under-recoveries were paid for by the government cash assistance to the tune of USD 8.995 billion (52%), by upstream NOCs (oil exploration companies) for USD 6.647 billion (39%) and the oil marketing companies paid for USD 1.512 billion (9%). Half of the money was paid for by the government in cash assistance on top of the subsidy.

The cash assistance of USD 8.995 billion must have been financed by tax money or borrowing. Now the interesting thing here is that India is running a huge fiscal deficit. For the year 2011-12 it stood at 5.8%, way above the budget target of 4.6%. The target for this year is 5.1%, which is unlikely to be met, thanks largely reduced economic activity. Ideally the government should look at reducing cost (like most corporations do) to bring the deficit down. Doing away with the subsidy is one of the many steps the government can take.
Often there are emails and Facebook shares suggesting how Indians are being crushed under expensive fuel prices while our neighbours enjoy fuel at less than half of what we pay. The truth however is

Country
Petrol
Diesel
LPG
India
68.46 (Delhi)
46.95 (Delhi)
400/14.2 Kg (Delhi)
Pakistan
55.55
52.19
786/11.8 KG
Sri Lanka
59.72
48.4
881/12.5 Kg
Bangladesh
57.60
38.61
443/12.5 Kg
Germany
114
103.3
-
U.K
111.4
114.79
-
USA
51.87
51.87
-

India still has the lowest diesel and LPG prices in the region, while the highest petrol prices are the highest. Petrol prices in India are 15 – 23% higher compared to our neighbours, having said that we should also look at the impact of subsidised prices on their economies. All three neighbouring countries are running virtually on international aid money. The local currency is weak. International donors like IMF (International Monetary Fund) and others are putting pressure to reduce the subsidy burden in order to receive further aid money. There have been recent hikes in fuel prices in order to placate the donors. Pakistan has an erratic supply of fuel despite low prices and natural gas which is abundant in Baluchistan is sold at a price of Rs. 53, while it is sold at Rs. 38.35 in Delhi.

Subsidies might ease the burden on our pockets but in the longer run will ruin the economy. India needs large scale reforms, which includes elimination of subsidies. While it is fun to be treated as subsidy darlings, it is in our long term interest as a country to pay the market prices and use the resources judiciously.

All prices quoted in Rs are in Indian Rupee and converted as per prevailing rates of 4-10-12 (xe.com)