Urdu, a language, which walked a country to its dismemberment

It was early spring in Dhaka, the then capital of the province of East Bengal in Pakistan. Students from the University of Dhaka started gathering for a protest on 21^st February 1952. The protest was a result of more than four years of petitions and requests to give Bengali the status of the national language. A resolution passed in 1947 in Karachi made Urdu the only national language. This meant approximately two thirds (44 million Bengali speaking people out of 69 million Pakistanis) of the population was rendered illiterate and ineligible for government jobs. The Bengalis saw this as an attempt by West Pakistani political machinery to dominate them and eradicate their rich cultural and linguistic history.

Image: Google search

The February protests obviously did not go down well with the administration. Section 144 was imposed to prevent “unlawful” assembly by protesters. Students were arrested and teargas was fired. In their attempt to meet the legislators the students faced gun fire and many were killed. The iron hold of the administration to stifle the movement was understandable. In 1948, none other than the Qaid himself has declared that Urdu and Urdu alone represents the spirit of a Muslim nation.

The language movement or Bhasha Andolan as it was called in Bengali lasted for another four years and the issue was settled with a constitutional amendment of 29^th February 1956. Bengali was accepted as the second national language of Pakistan. The issue may have been settled constitutionally but it continued to be controversial. During the Martial Law imposed by Ayub Khan, attempts were made to reverse the constitutional amendment but it did not succeed.

Bengali was not the only reason for the bitterness between the eastern and western halves of Pakistan. It had much to do with the assumed racial supremacy of West Pakistanis over their eastern brethren. The army was dominated by recruits from West Pakistan and state aid hardly reached the flood and cyclone prone East Pakistan. Amidst all this the final blow came with the overwhelming victory of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman’s Awami League in the general elections of 1970. West Pakistan never allowed the transfer of power to the legitimate contender, leading to a standoff between Mujibur Rehman and West Pakistan. It led to the Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971 and a humiliating defeat of Pakistan. Ironically the instrument of surrender was signed at the Ramana Race Course, the same place from where the Qaid has once declared that Urdu alone represents the spirit of a Muslim nation.

The polarisation unleashed by Urdu proved to be stronger than the Two Nation Theory on which Pakistan was created. The liberation of Bangladesh was proof that the Two Nation Theory was not only flawed but failed to act as the cohesive bond between the two halves of Pakistan.

The dominance of Urdu in Pakistan happened at the expense of local languages like Punjabi, Baluchi and Sindhi. A section of undivided India, which had many different languages was forced to accept an alien language. A language, which the elite imported from India, a country they refused to call their own.

Urdu influenced literature in much of Northern India and continues to do so. It has given us poets like Ghalib and Mir. It was once the language of the Delhi elite and represented the high culture of cities. Sadly, the language that once incited romance also incited hatred and bloodshed.

Kashmir and The Economist's gossip column

Welcome to Kashmir
Image courtesy - IBTimes

There is never a dull time to write about Kashmir. The place is always on the edge. Sometimes due to an infiltration bid from Pakistan or there are mass protests by the locals. While the Indian army does a good job at containing the infiltration attempts, nothing much has changed when it comes to locals protesting. Friday afternoons, after the prayer, are a preferred time for protests. Masked men would raise anti-India slogans and wave Pakistani flags. They would have an immediate audience of people returning from the prayers (Friday prayers are kind of mandatory in Islam and mosques witness a high attendance compared to other days). Till some time ago the protesters would wave Pakistani flags to show their support towards Kashmir’s accession to Pakistan, i.e. secession from India. Things have taken an alarming trend ever since the Islamic State came into being. The protesters now wave IS flags, probably showing support to the brutal terror outfit.

The story of Kashmir is complicated and there are no immediate answers to the problem, especially when Pakistan is illegally occupying almost a third of the territory. This blogpost is not an attempt to find solution to the Kashmir problem or to assign blame for the mess the place is in today. This is in response to a recent article that appeared in The Economist. Titled “Kashmir in stasis – Rough sleeping”, the article is an attempt to highlight the recent bout of violence that resulted in five people losing their lives.

The article, full of rhetoric and very little substance seems to be an attempt at “covering India” in each of its issues. The Economist wants to increase its subscription base in India and hence gives extra coverage to stories from the country. No harm in that. With dwindling subscriptions in mature markets in the West, India is the obvious market. China being a tough nut due to its extremely strict media censorship.

Back to the article. The article begins with, “MUSLIMS know the parable as the story of the People of the Cave: some men fall asleep and find, on waking, that centuries have passed and the world is transformed. The people of the Kashmir valley in the lush uplands of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir have their own version”.

Well, it’s not just the Muslims of the valley who know this parable, the Hindus of the valley, who were systematically murdered of forced to flee their homes in hundreds of thousands are equally aware of that.

“Ever since 1947, when they found themselves east of an active frontline between the two new states of India and Pakistan, valley folk have watched the world evolve”.

The Kashmiri people did not find themselves between two new states. The state of Kashmir acceded to India (just like the 550 princely states did after 1947), after Pakistan attacked the territory by infiltrating tribal people and army men without insignia.

“And still the valley’s 7m people, who speak their own unique language, are nearly all Muslim and generally disdain India and Pakistan alike, remain hapless pawns in a vicious game between those rivals”.

Kashmiris speak a unique language just like millions of other Indians speak theirs. There are 22 scheduled languages in India. The population of Kashmir is 96.4% (census 2011) Muslim, largely because the Hindus were kicked out of their homes or murdered by the Kashmiri people in 1990. As far as the “disdain” is concerned, The Economist should recall that 65% eligible Kashmiris turnedout to cast their votes in the 2014 state elections. Not sure where the statistics for “disdain” were dug out from.

“Some facts are clear. Anger at the Indian army’s heavy presence is explosive”.

Of course people will not like to live in a virtual army barrack all their lives. But then what exactly are these people doing to come out of this? Waving Pakistan flags or IS flags will definitely not help the army in reducing their presence. The recent events in Paris & Brussels are case in point where a handful of terrorists unleashed mayhem in an otherwise peaceful city.

“Security forces are quick to shoot, and keen to divert attention from their misconduct”.

This is what is known as a “motherhood statement”. Where are the facts? Where is the source? On the contrary here is a video evidence, which suggests that the security forces actually put their own lives in danger and get beatenup by the locals instead of randomly firing at protestors.

“Few in Kashmir doubt which version is closer to the truth. They have too often heard of sexual abuse by soldiers, and of police framing scapegoats”.

Again The Economist reports like a gossip column quoting hearsay instead of credible sources. People can read The Sun if they want gossip, why bother competing with it?

“Incidents like this often lead to escalating protests and shootings, and end in inquiries with no result”.

Another motherhood statement without any source.

“Some 40,000 people, by official count, have died in the valley since 1990, when a bloody insurgency covertly sponsored by Pakistan provoked a brutal Indian crackdown”.

After carefully establishing that the army in the valley is cruel and brutal and the peaceful, stuck-in-between Kashmiris are the victims, the article come up with a figure of 40,000 dead, subtly implying that these were people killed by the army. This is called “misleading” the readers. The 40,000 includes civilians killed by terrorists & terrorists killed by security forces. Also The Economist should give some editorial space to the fact that the “quick to shoot” security forces came to the valley only after the locals took to insurgency.

“In recent years Pakistan has throttled the flow of arms”.

This is the most ludicrous statement made by The Economist in the entire article. Well if Pakistan has “throttled” the flow of arms, then where exactly do the terrorists get the arms before they try to sneak in across the Line Of Control? There is no evidence of the terrorists having a 3D printer where they can print their assault rifles.

“Dependent on income from tourism, the wider public has scant appetite for jihadist heroics against India’s massive might”.

This is true but then the wider public has never really made these feelings public. There are more rallies and shutdowns in support of theterrorist separatists than against them.

“It’s been 26 years since militancy peaked, but there is more anger and alienation among the youth now than then,” says Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, a separatist leader”.

What else does one expects to hear from a “separatist leader”?

“We want to keep resistance peaceful, but it’s very hard when India bans every outlet for protest or debate, and in fact doesn’t even acknowledge that there is a problem.” 

Of course India will not recognize the problem, i.e. the problem of Kashmir seceding from India (azadi as they call it), because there is no legal basis for that.

The separatists want to move away from India only because they think Muslims cannot live with a Hindu majority India. They sincerely believe in the two nation theory proposed by Jinnah, which led to partition of India. What Mirwaiz doesn’t acknowledge is that the theory has been proved wrong, many times over, in the country Jinnah created. Pakistan has been a hotbed of ethnic and religious unrest ever since it was created.

The Islamic state of Pakistan has a simmering insurgency in Balochistan, where the Pakistani army randomly picks up men, women and children and dumps their mutilated bodies along highways. Read here, here and here. The North Western region of Pakistan has long been a secure hideout for Al-Qaeda and Taliban. The Provinces of Punjab and Sindh witness regular terror attacks carried out by the Pakitani Taliban. Ahmadiand Shia Muslims are brutally massacred on the streets and their places of worship blown up. So much for the two nation theory.

To sum up, the story The Economist is trying to tell is one that of rhetoric and extremely poor research, even gossip masquerading as hearsay in some cases. We understand that you want to improve your subscription base in India (which has more English speaking people than the population of United Kingdom), but to merely fill the “India section” you should not resort to reducing yourself to a Tabloid.

The deal – what it means to India and South Asia

At last

Twenty months of negotiations, threats and diplomacy has led to a deal, which will stop Iran from acquiring weapon grade Uranium. The details of the deal are still trickling in. According to this CNN report, “The deal reduces the number of Iranian centrifuges by two-thirds. It places bans on enrichment at key facilities, and limits uranium research and development to the Natanz facility. The deal caps uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent and limits the stockpile to 300 kg, all for 15 years. Iran will be required to ship spent fuel out of the country forever, as well as allow inspectors from the IAEA inspectors certain access in perpetuity. Heightened inspections, including tracking uranium mining and monitoring the production and storage of centrifuges, will last for up to 20 years. The U.S. estimates that the new measures take Iran from being able to assemble its first bomb within 2-3 months, to at least one year from now”.

 

Three decades of animosity between Iran and the US, due to political intervention of the latter and an unprecedented hostage crisis during the revolution, seems to be thawing. The deal of course means a lot to Iranian economy (the full impact of the deal will only be felt once the sanctions are lifted next year), it also has the potential to influence much of South Asian geo-politics and economy. Iran has the fourth largest proven oil reserves in the world but exported only 2.3 million barrels a day, against 6.2 million barrels a day (2014 data; US EIA) by Saudi Arabia. The sanctions significantly reduced the exports and forced Iran to store millions of barrels of crude in floating tankers in the Persian Gulf.

 

The future – India

Once the sanctions are lifted, Iran will increase production and export. The oil prices already under pressure from a weak demand and oversupply might see a further decrease in prices. Assuming the diplomatic relations between US and Iran will improve progressively and the deal will hold, it is possible that Iran will provide US access to its ports in the Persian Gulf. It may also offer surface connectivity, enabling the NATO to supply its forces in Afghanistan. These two possibilities have the potential to change things for better, for India.

 

With over 80% of its energy needs being imported, India will stand to benefit immensely by cheaper crude prices. India ran a bill of USD 112.7 billion on oil imports in 2014-15 A price drop of even a single dollar per barrel translates into a billion dollars saved. A substantial drop will provide India with a windfall gain, making precious financial resources available for development work.

 

Indian business also stands to benefit from a sanctions free Iran. ONGC Videsh Ltd. discovered a gas filed in the Persian Gulf (Farzad-B) with an estimated reserves of 21.7 trillion cubic feet. The operating contract (with ONGC Videsh owning 60% stake) was never signed due to international sanctions. The situation will change once the sanctions are gradually lifted next year.

 

The future – Pakistan

On the other hand a friendlier Iran may also mean access to US and NATO supplies to Afghanistan. In the past a hostile Iran made Pakistan the sole point of transit for almost all NATO supplies. The heavy dependence on Pakistan lead to billions of dollars being paid to the army and civil administration by America. The money thus paid found its way to funding various terror groups. The fact that Pakistani establishment sponsored terrorism has long been established by both international governments and strategic research scholars. Professor Christine Fair of Georgetown University in her book, fighting to the end gives a well-researched account of Pakistani army, the ISI and past dictators who indulged in funding Jihad.

 

The dependence on Pakistan to serve its goals in Afghanistan, remains a major reason why the US funds Pakistan. Possibility of an alternate route from Iran puts Pakistan in a situation where the American aid dollars might dry up sooner than expected. While cheaper crude will help India fund its poverty elevation programme, a fund crunch in Pakistan might force it to scale down its terror funding.

 

The hope

What really happens is a question that will get answered only in the future, as and when sanctions are removed and how US engages Iran. But there is a clear opportunity for India to scale up its civilizational ties with Iran and turn them into mutually beneficial business relations. A rejuvenated foreign policy and a business friendly government have the potential to make the transition. Hassan Rouhani as a chief guest at Rajpath, for next Republic Day might do India a lot of favour.

The Silk Road and the slow moving elephant

During his visit to Pakistan, Chinese President, Xi Jinping agreed to invest USD 46 billion in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of an ambitious surface connectivity project named Silk Road. Named after the ancient caravan route, the larger project envisages connecting Beijing with Rotterdam in the Netherlands. China also aims to complement the land route with a maritime route connecting Venice to Quanzhou, in Fujian province of China, on the shores of South China Sea. The link extending into Pakistan seems to be an afterthought and an interesting one at that.

 

China has a vision of its “peaceful rise” while laying its hands on resources and markets around the world. This is nothing surprising, it is the second largest economy and the most populous country in the world. It needs resources and market access to sustain the pace of development it has pulled off in the last couple of decades. With the economy showing signs of cooling down, China has to spur consumption and shift its focus from being an export driven economy. Moreover it has to find a useful way to deal with the pile of foreign exchange it is sitting on (USD 4 trillion at the end of 2014). Investing in infrastructure projects abroad is one such use. Japan has done it the past and in the process helped Japanese companies to enter new markets.

The proposed investment in Pakistan should be seen in light of diminishing American presence in Asia, warming of India – America relations and an ambitious China eager to make its mark in international arena. The CPEC is a mix of transport and energy projects stretching from Kashgar in Xingjian, China to Gwadar in Baluchistan, Pakistan. The projects will help energy starved Pakistan and create jobs over the period of implementation. More importantly the CPEC will provide China the access to Straits of Hormuz, mitigating its dependence on the Straits of Malacca. Any blockade in an event of war will have serious impact on its trade.

Meanwhile the Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, T.C.A. Raghavan has said, India is not worried by the Chinese investment in CPEC. It would be interesting to know what the inner circle at Ministry of External Affairs has to say. But the question one should ask India is, “will the elephant move faster”? It moves but at a woefully slow pace. While China has been extending its foot print in Africa, Europe and ASEAN, India has done precious little to enhance its own presence.

Progress and prosperity. May be, may be not.

Indian Affair has written on theIndia-ASEAN relationship and need to improve surface connectivity, in 2012, while the commemorative India-ASEAN Summit was underway. The post from December 2012 can be re-read to the policy makers today without having change much. Prime Minister Modi attended the 12^th India-ASEAN Summit in Nay Pyi Taw last November. He stressed a lot on the shared culture and heritage and the urgency to implement the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in services and a relook at the FTA for goods. Same things that were discussed in 2012. He hardly had anything to say on surface connectivity.

The India – Myanmar – Thailand trilateral highway still exists only in files and the proposed rail link connecting India’s north eastern states to Myanmar and Thailand have been almost forgotten (despite many of the rail projects being termed “national projects”).

The 2010-11 annual report of Indian Railways lists a total of twelve projects (seven of them “national projects”) being undertaken to enhance connectivity in the region. The aim is then to connect the Indian Railways network to that of Myanmar, Thailand and eventually to Vietnam. Sadly the recent report for the year 2014-15 lists all but one (Harmuti – Naharlagun, a 20 km section in Arunachal Pradesh) project as incomplete. What is worse is that the 2010-11 report anticipated all twelve projects to be completed by the year 2015-16, the latest report has not given any fixed date for most of the projects. The total cost estimate for the twelve projects is INR 33,016 crore (USD 5.1 billion). The amount spent so far is a meagre INR 7,308 crore (USD 1.1 billion) or 22% of the total budget. So much for the status of “national project”.

The newly inaugurated Integrated Check Posts in Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram, will not be of much use as long as the surface connectivity remains poor. The road connectivity in the region is poor and takes a long time to undulate around the Chicken’s Neck. The time for India to act on its ASEAN trade and foreign relations policy is now. China is already connecting its cities to ASEAN and is building artificial islands to expand its territory. The choice with India is simple, let the elephant move at its own pace or outpace the dragon.

The bigger picture

Prime Minister Modi invited the heads of the members of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to his swearing in ceremony. His Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Sharif attended the ceremony, which lead to a series of media debates on how the new government is giving out signals of restarting the relationship with Pakistan. Influential journalists from the English media even coined phrases like “sari/shawl diplomacy”, in response to PM Modi sending a shawl to PM Sharif’s mother and the latter reciprocating it with a sari to PM Modi’s mother.

But as always the hype was short lived and there were a series of ceasefire violation along the Line of Control and the international border in Jammu and Kashmir. There was another deliberate attempt by the Pakistani High Commissioner Mr Abdul Basit to annoy the Indian government. The High Commissioner met Mr Sayed Ali Shah Geelani, leader of the All Party Hurriyet Conference, a secessionist group operating from the Kashmir valley. The response from India was to call off the secretary level talks scheduled for 25^th August.

Such incidents have happened in the past. India tried to talk peace and was reciprocated with ceasefire violations and even localized war (Kargil 1999). The main reason why all the past attempts to establish peace have failed, is the absence of a unified command in Pakistan. There are three states acting within the country. The elected government, the sundry terrorist groups in the tribal areas and Baluchistan and the all-powerful Pakistani army-ISI nexus. The civilian government has no real power and is always dictated by the army-ISI nexus. The “khaki capitalism” that previous Pakistani generals created has become too big and it only makes sense for the army to keep things under its control. A 2007 book by Ayesha Siddiqa, “Military Inc. - Inside Pakistan's Military Economy” suggests that the total assets under the army control are USD 20 billion, half of it land holdings. An article on Guardian covering the book can be read here. With such huge stakes at hand the Pakistani military will never want peace with India. That would eventually mean no money for weapon stockpiling and hence no source of income.

The relations between India and Pakistan have been at a stage where India should take a step back and look at the larger picture. It is time to shed the obsession with Pakistan and work on others. The new government appears to have done that by engaging with its neighbours. The PM chose Bhutan for his maiden visit followed by Nepal. The response to his visit in both the countries was exceptionally warm. After a long time there are no Indian fishermen in the Sri Lankan prisons. Foreign minister Sushma Swaraj recently concluded her four day multilateral visit to Myanmar. This is a clear departure from the previous government’s stand on foreign engagement.

To put it bluntly, there is no need to go the extra mile to make friends with Pakistan. The country is constantly on the list of failed states, is rife with terrorist and secessionist groups, the economy is in tatters and there is no “real” government to talk to. India would do much better by focusing its energy on the countries which want to work with India and share the fruits of its economic growth.

Lets broaden the road of friendship

The biggest untapped potential is Myanmar. There are two reasons why the country is important. First it was until recently a closed economy run by the military junta. That has changed. Aung Sang Su Kyi has been released from house arrest and is most likely to run for president in the next elections. Second, it is a member of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Indian Affairs has in its previous posts stressed the need to capture the ASEAN market. The prime focus should be on connectivity between the two countries and cross border trade. The much talked about India, Myanmar, Thailand trilateral highway should be put on a priority. Not only will it help Indian businesses but the biggest beneficiary would be the much neglected North East India.

The trilateral highway will also provide much needed market access to land locked Nepal and Bhutan. Private business should take advantage of the resource rich Myanmar and set up manufacturing units, which can supply the products to the ASEAN countries. India’s auto sector, particularly the two-wheeler segment has huge potential in Myanmar and other ASEAN countries. TVS started its manufacturing plant in Indonesia in 2007 and the venture is expected to breakeven this year. Myanmar has its problems, mainly infrastructure, but a first mover advantage might just compensate for the lack of infrastructure, which will be in place, eventually.

With the new government there is a fresh chance to act rationally than emotionally on India’s foreign policy matters. PM Modi was born after India’s independence and has no personal relationship with Pakistan, unlike the previous PM, Mr Singh. The business minded approach of PM Modi and lack of emotional baggage will help him in dealing objectively with our neighbours. Let us see whether the new government seizes the opportunity or repeats the mistakes of the previous governments.

  

Elections next door

On Saturday the 11^th of May 2013, Pakistan for the first time in its history will vote to transfer power from one civilian government to the other. In the past six decades the country has never had a civilian government, which completed its term. Much of the time was spent by the army to introduce martial law and rule by decree. The army ceased to be looked as defenders of the frontiers; it was now saviour of the Pakistani people. The last popular army dictator was General Parvez Musharraf (he later resigned from the army and assumed the role of a civilian president). Democracy never really got a chance to take roots in Pakistan.

For the first time since Pakistan’s independence, things are looking bright and understandably so. The Pakistani media celebrated the successful completion of the full term of the parliament and hoped that it will now be a regular feature. In fact if this indeed becomes a regular feature, it will be beneficial for both Pakistan and its neighbours. A civilian government has different priorities and is more accommodating to public sentiments. The long rule of Generals has created an environment where Pakistan is projected as a victim of international conspiracy and constantly under existential threat (largely from India). Riding high on such imagined threat, the army managed to take control of almost one fifth (18%) of the total budget expenditure.

A civilian government is accountable to the people who voted it in (unlike a general who usually rules without any accountability and retires in a posh London or Dubai neighbourhood). The civilian government will also try to bring economic prosperity and sense of security to its people. Both are severely lacking in present day Pakistan, having said that it will be a tall order for any party which manages to form the government. Over the past decade or so, since the war on terror arrived in Pakistan, the country has been consumed in violence. Daily terror attacks, sectarian violence and political rivalry (called target killings) are no longer seen as something extraordinary. Billions of dollars of aid money (given by America in return of cooperation in the war on terror) has been siphoned off to secrete bank accounts or put to use in arming the forces. Little has reached the common man.

Over the years during its rule the army has managed to build a massive business empire of its own (The unending battle). The National Logistics Cell (NLC), the army owned trucking company is today the largest of its kind in Pakistan and has crushed private competition. Being a monopoly and a state enterprise the generals controlling the company have made sure that Pakistani railways is turned into an inefficient liability, making NLC more reliable. The various army business interests now work in absolute monopoly. For any civilian government to reverse the trend might mean risking another coup. But there are lessons to learn from. Turkey had a similar problem when the Generals there were powerful and controlled huge businesses. Today they are cut to size. The economic interest of the army is still high but is lower since its peak in pre Erdogan era. Pakistan can borrow a page from Turkey to tackle its own army.

Another challenge facing Pakistan is its political infighting and party rivalries. Target killings have become a routine in Karachi. Political parties formed on ethnic and linguistic basis fight turf wars and have turned pocket of Karachi into “no go” areas. The situation in Baluchistan is no better. A long running separatist insurgency has turned the gas rich province into a backward quarter of Pakistan. People are regularly kidnapped never to be seen again. Headless bodies later appear and identification becomes impossible. The central government seems indifferent to the situation there, though the Awami National Party from Baluchistan is an ally of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party. Amid such challenging environment the various strains of Taliban only add to the grief. The home grown terror organisations carry out suicide attacks on a regular basis, targeting political rallies, army garrisons, minority processions and their places of worship.

Changing all this and providing its people a better Pakistan to live will be a long drawn battle for the civilian government. The mess created in the last six decades cannot be sorted out in the next five years. Things that might accelerate the process of bringing back the country on track may include the following

• Tackling the terrorists in tribal areas before final pull out of NATO forces from Afghanistan
• Making peace with Afghanistan and helping it fight the terrorists on both sides of the Durand line
• Tackling the terrorist modules working against India in the Kashmir region
• Making peace with the Baluch insurgents and share the gas revenue with them

Majority of Pakistan’s problems will get sorted out if it manages to eliminate the terrorists on its soil. The next step will be to claim its share in the regional economy. With two giant economies in its neighbourhood, it will be foolish not to ride on their success. This will not happen overnight. But the election is a right step in that direction. 

The unending battle

At the stroke of the midnight hour when the world was sleeping, India was divided into two countries based on religion. What followed was an orgy of hate, riots, arson, rape and murder. Communal tensions started brewing much before the actual date of partition. The days following 15^th August were the most dreadful. An estimated 10 million people migrated between India and Pakistan (many locked their homes believing they will return once the matter cools down) making it the largest mass migration in human history. The violence that engulfed large part of northern and eastern India during those few months lead to many deaths. Official records were scarce but estimates put the number to around a million. India and Pakistan never managed to reconcile.

Who can kick harder?

Four wars have been fought between India and Pakistan and border skirmishes are common. Though there is an agreed ceasefire between the two countries the troops regularly exchange fire. People to people contact on both sides of the border is scarce and there is a deep trust deficit. Regular export of terrorism by Pakistan since the early 90s has not helped the matter at all. The army of Pakistan which also acts as capitalist force (Pakistani armed force controls a USD 10 billion business empire manufacturing everything from fertilizers to breakfast cereals) has successfully managed to keep the fear psychosis alive in Pakistan. The defense budget of Pakistan for fiscal year 2012-13 is PKR 800 billion (USD 8.21 billion) 28% of the total budget spending.

The line between politics and armed forces in Pakistan is so blurred that the election commission wants the army to supervise the elections later this year. The election commission has also ordered verification of electoral rolls to be carried out under supervision of the army. No one knows for sure who between the army and the civilian government rules the state. This is one of the biggest problems when it comes to negotiating peace with Pakistan. The Pakistani army is interested in keeping the fire burning. If in the coming decades the relationship between India and Pakistan normalize there will be a heavy reduction in defense spending and the army will be sent back to the barracks. Obviously they do not want to be sidelined.

The civilian governments of Pakistan tried in the past to patch up with India (once even a general after staging a coup got talking to India) but their military always betrayed them. The recent violation of cease fire in Kashmir is one such example. Two Indian soldiers were killed and their bodies mutilated by the Pakistani troops in an ambush. Meanwhile Pakistan is claiming that Indian troops shot down one of their soldiers. Such news acts as fodder for the jingoists on both sides of the border. Many Indians want a “final” war on Pakistan, some want it to be nuked, some sane types prefer surgical strikes and almost every one firmly agrees that the government is spineless.

From similar experiences around the world we know that a “final” war does not exist, nukes are at best deterrents and military strikes have not wiped out Taliban in Afghanistan even after ten years. Is there a solution to this unending battle? No one knows. There will have to be many changes on both sides of the border. More on the Pakistani side than on the Indian. Political situation in Pakistan has to stabilize, its home grown and military financed terror networks have to be disbanded and honest textbooks should replace the present anti India ones. All this might never happen or at best take many decades. India cannot and should not wait for the right moment to arrive.

India is yet to harness its growing power on the international high table. Ministry of external affair finds it difficult to manage the various stakeholders at once. Severe staff shortage and misplaced foreign policies have made India a dwarf in the international arena. Till 9/11 the western world saw the India – Pakistan relationship from the Pakistani point of view. Aggressive diplomacy and friendly relationship with the US helped Pakistan a lot. India’s repeated allegation of state sponsored terrorism by Pakistan fell on deaf ears.

With no solution in sight, India should embark upon a two prong long term strategy. First is to engage into aggressive diplomacy and second to engage with Pakistan at multiple levels. The international community has finally recognized the issue of Pakistan and its terror networks. Post 2014 when the American forces move out the interest in Pakistan too will diminish. India should be worried about such a situation. This is the time when it should engage in a high level dialogue with not just America but also with other stakeholders like China and Turkey. India should also turn out as a matured democracy in the UN. As an aspirant of a permanent seat on the Security Council it should demonstrate its willingness to engage in world matters than abstaining on matters of world interest in a vote.

Engagement with Pakistan is a necessity. One cannot wish away its neighbours. The current level of engagement is a good step forward. But this can only happen if Pakistan plays ball. 

The subsidy darlings

Earlier this month the government finally took a bold step to bring down the subsidy bill. It announced increase in price of diesel and a cap on number of subsidized LPG cylinders to just six per year (in some congress ruled states it is since revised up to nine per year). The news enraged the Facebook using Indian middle class. The twitterati went berserk with innovative tweets and the country shut down for a day in protest. Well, almost. However, of all the people upset by diesel price hike, people driving diesel SUVs were the worst hit.

Please do not snatch our crutches 

According to the ministry of petroleum and natural gas, in the year 2010-11, the government gave a subsidy of USD 637 million on Public Distribution System (PDS) Kerosene and domestic LPG (Liquefied petroleum gas). On top of this the oil marketing companies made an under-recovery of USD 17.1 billion. The under-recoveries were paid for by the government cash assistance to the tune of USD 8.995 billion (52%), by upstream NOCs (oil exploration companies) for USD 6.647 billion (39%) and the oil marketing companies paid for USD 1.512 billion (9%). Half of the money was paid for by the government in cash assistance on top of the subsidy.

The cash assistance of USD 8.995 billion must have been financed by tax money or borrowing. Now the interesting thing here is that India is running a huge fiscal deficit. For the year 2011-12 it stood at 5.8%, way above the budget target of 4.6%. The target for this year is 5.1%, which is unlikely to be met, thanks largely reduced economic activity. Ideally the government should look at reducing cost (like most corporations do) to bring the deficit down. Doing away with the subsidy is one of the many steps the government can take.

Often there are emails and Facebook shares suggesting how Indians are being crushed under expensive fuel prices while our neighbours enjoy fuel at less than half of what we pay. The truth however is

Country	Petrol	Diesel	LPG
India	68.46 (Delhi)	46.95 (Delhi)	400/14.2 Kg (Delhi)
Pakistan	55.55	52.19	786/11.8 KG
Sri Lanka	59.72	48.4	881/12.5 Kg
Bangladesh	57.60	38.61	443/12.5 Kg
Germany	114	103.3	-
U.K	111.4	114.79	-
USA	51.87	51.87	-

India still has the lowest diesel and LPG prices in the region, while the highest petrol prices are the highest. Petrol prices in India are 15 – 23% higher compared to our neighbours, having said that we should also look at the impact of subsidised prices on their economies. All three neighbouring countries are running virtually on international aid money. The local currency is weak. International donors like IMF (International Monetary Fund) and others are putting pressure to reduce the subsidy burden in order to receive further aid money. There have been recent hikes in fuel prices in order to placate the donors. Pakistan has an erratic supply of fuel despite low prices and natural gas which is abundant in Baluchistan is sold at a price of Rs. 53, while it is sold at Rs. 38.35 in Delhi.

Subsidies might ease the burden on our pockets but in the longer run will ruin the economy. India needs large scale reforms, which includes elimination of subsidies. While it is fun to be treated as subsidy darlings, it is in our long term interest as a country to pay the market prices and use the resources judiciously.

All prices quoted in Rs are in Indian Rupee and converted as per prevailing rates of 4-10-12 (xe.com)

Too much on my plate

Train tracks in Persia

Afghanistan’s recently rediscovered mineral wealth has attracted many eyes on this restive region for altogether a different purpose. Companies from west and east have bid for the mining rights in Hajigak region. Of the twenty two companies shortlisted fourteen are Indian, including a consortium of a state run company, Steel Authority of India Limited. The mineral wealth of Afghanistan is valued at between 1 – 3 trillion US dollars, more than the valuation of Indian economy at 1.6 trillion US dollars (at nominal prices). The situation looks rosy, with many Indian companies lining up for the contracts a few would definitely get lucky. India’s appetite for commodities will only rise in the future and a source so close to the country will only make things easy. However, on ground the picture is rather bleak.

Proposed train connection between Afghanistan and Iran

Though Kabul is just around 600 km from the Indian border, transporting minerals from Afghanistan to India is a tough task. With no transit agreement in place with Pakistan and Afghanistan being sandwiched between Iran and Pakistan, with no access to the shipping lanes, the only way out is using Iran’s sea ports. India has embarked upon an ambitious plan to link Hajigak with the port of Chabahar in southern Iran by a rail link. This train track will by-pass Pakistan completely and give India the advantage of easy access to Afghanistan. This arrangement will also help Afghanistan reduce its dependence on Pakistan for supplies and trade. However, the track record of Indian state owned companies building large scale infrastructure projects abroad have not been impressive. Construction of a power plant in Sri Lanka has finally started after many years of agreement. It will be interesting to see how quickly things move on this project.

On a multi lateral level the Istanbul conference concluded in Istanbul on 2 November 2011. The joint declaration did not come up with any strategic plan and merely reiterated what every one has been saying so far. However, mockingly though the declaration calls for promoting of tourism activities in the country. India was part of the process this year. Pressure from India and the US has worked and Turkey extended the invitation to India. Still the Istanbul process remains only one of many in a string of conferences being organised across the world.

Pakistan’s Yes – No – Maybe and Iran’s dirty bomb

Pakistan has decided to bestow India with the long pending “Most Favoured Nation” (MFN) status. This is mandatory under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Agreement). The MFN status helps the countries to open up trade and shift to a state of “negative list” from that of a “positive list”. This essentially means that trade under MFN status will restrict only a small number of items mentioned in the negative list, as compared to the positive list system which only allows trade in a few items in positive list. The going has not been easy for Pakistan. It took Pakistan almost fifteen years to reciprocate the status after India granted it in 1996. The recent announcement has lead to a frenzy of activities in the Pakistani defence establishment and there has been going back and forth on the commitment from the civilian government. It is believed that Pakistani military is against any kind of close cooperation with India.

The MFN status in itself will not be enough; it calls for a major overhaul and coordination between the eight member states of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation). A possible integration of roadways, waterways and railways in the SAARC region is being discussed. This might prove to be a path breaking move to boost regional integration and development.

Where will this lead?

With the Afghanistan – Iran rail link and the MFN status offered Pakistan, things should look bright on the bilateral trade front. However, the growing concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme and safety of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons it will be a tough task to achieve all this. A report by the UN agency IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is expected within days this week (7 – 13 Nov, 2011). It is widely believed that the report will say that Iran has reached the critical stage where it can acquire capabilities to induce nuclear chain reaction required for a nuclear weapon. There have been reports of both the US and Israel warning Iran to stay away from developing its nuclear capabilities. It is difficult to guess the outcome of the report, however what is plausible is even stricter UN sanctions on Iran. Given such a situation India will be in a tight spot with its ambitious Afghan – Iran rail link. Getting itself involved in the project might be counted as violation of the UN mandated sanctions and would definitely upset the Indo – US relationships.

Will Jasmine blossom in China?

Another growing concern lies across the eastern borders of India in China. A string of reports suggest that China is undergoing a sort of social movement. In the past China managed to gag media and stop unwanted news items from being shared with people. In recent years that trend has changed. Internet has proved to be much more difficult to control than the traditional media. Micro blogging sites like Weibo have made flow of information swifter. Taking a cue from the Arab spring the Chinese tried to organise a Jasmine uprising, which was brutally crushed before it could blossom. Internet proved to be a handy tool in organising the scattered jasmine protests in the country (despite strict control by the government). State owned media too has started pointing fingers at the government with editorials and news stories in Xinhua (the largest state owned English language daily) and other dailies. Other reports in international media paint a grim economic picture of China. Rising interest rates, increasing labour cost, fleeing entrepreneurs, unpaid construction workers, slumping property prices, crack down on dissidents and forceful land acquisitions by the government are widely talked and discussed.

Ai Weiwei, a celebrity dissident kept in illegal detention,
is now being slapped with a tax fine of 2 million US dollars 

India needs to take some time out to think about the possible fall outs of a revolution in China (which is not unlikely given the situation). Bilateral trade between India and China is expected to reach 100 billion US dollars in the next four years. China is already India’s largest trading partner and any upheaval in China might have serious consequences for Indian business environment.

With too much on the plate the fear is always that some tasty food will get ignored. The current situation might be a little overwhelming for Indian foreign affairs ministry, given the lack of personnel. The way events are developing in India’s neighbourhood, one thing it can not afford is lack of focus. This is a situation where every thing comes at the top of the priority list.

Winds of change in India’s east

Indian summer

Changes in Myanmar are often glacial if not unheard of. Politically isolated by international sanctions and heavily guarded by its generals, Myanmar has virtually closed its doors to the world. Extreme poverty and rampant corruption has put lives of ordinary Burmese in the slow lane. The 8888 uprising (pro democracy movement lead by Ms Aung San Su Kyi on 8^th August 1988) was brutally crushed by the junta. Since then Ms Kyi has been languishing under house arrest. She was released in November 2010 with limited freedom to her movement.

Things have started changing ever since. Ms Kyi’s release came six days after a stage managed general election, which she and her party refused to recognise. The government is still controlled by ex-generals including the current president Mr Thein Sein (inaugurated in March 2011), who served four decades in the armed forces. But it is civilian in its appearance. Mr Sein has discarded his military uniform in favour of a democratic government. However, a change in constitution in 2008 vests immense powers in the military. But in Myanmar any change is a welcome step.

There have been instances in the past when things looked bright on the banks of the Irrawaddy. In the mid 1990s and then in late 2002, the generals and Ms Kyi seemed to make some headway towards reconciliation. Sadly nothing came out of the efforts. It will be interesting to see if 2011 proves to be Burma’s Indian summer.

Spring in India

India’s relationship with Myanmar has been cold at the best. The last time Myanmar was discussed widely in India was during the twilight days of the Second World War. Japanese army was in Myanmar hoping to control Assam and later Calcutta (now renamed Kolkata). Once the World War came to an end, Myanmar slipped into a corner in Indian foreign policy. A second, Myanmar wave struck India during the prodemocracy 8888 uprising, but pragmatism won the day. Economic changes of the 90’s and rise of an assertive China put an end to India’s support for democracy in Myanmar.

India maintained its distance from sensitive topics of democracy and human rights in Myanmar, while it still engaged with the Junta keeping an eye on its natural resources. Myanmar has a huge potential to serve India’s growing demand for minerals and energy. It is also a link between India and economically successful ASEAN trade bloc. India was however left behind in its efforts to harness the potential Myanmar has to offer. Long period of military rule and international sanctions pushed Myanmar closer to China. With dictatorships like North Korea and coup prone countries like Pakistan as close friends, it did not bother China to have another member in its club.

China made huge investments in Myanmar’s infrastructure with an eye on its vast natural resources and strategic location close to India. But the winds of change are blowing now. Like every where else Chinese presence is being seen as a threat. Earlier this month Myanmar announced that it will suspend construction of Myitsone dam, a $3.6 billion Chinese hydro electric power project (due to environmental concerns) in north east of the country. The project had a capacity to generate 6,000 MW electricity and almost all of that was supposed to be sold to China’s energy hungry grid. Another ambitious plan to link Myanmar’s north eastern state of Shan to the port city of Kyauk Phyu on the Bay of Bengal (at a cost of $ 20 billion) was supposed to start in December 2011. After the scrapping of the power project, the project might get delayed if not stalled.

With Chinese relations souring, Myanmar is looking at India. President Mr Thein Sein is visiting India (12 – 15 October 2011) and will hold talks on increasing bilateral trade and matters of cross border security. This visit has the potential of transforming the cold relations between India and Myanmar into a spring of opportunities.

The shining pagodas

Things are looking up in Myanmar (or at least appearing so). A quasi democratic government, increased political freedom for opposition, setting up of labour unions and release of political prisoners are all steps in the right direction by Myanmar. Rest of the world will soon recognise these efforts and the sanctions might be rolled back in a phased manner. India’s proximity to Myanmar and Myanmar’s strategy of counter balancing China can spell boon for both the countries.

India’s north eastern states have huge potential to engage in trade activities with Myanmar. In the long run as and when the transit corridors with Bangladesh become operational an extension can be offered to Myanmar, giving it easy access to sea ports and a larger market to India. Closer relation between India and Myanmar will also help in handling the insurgency in north east India. There is a whole new spectrum of opportunities to be explored by India and Myanmar to forge closer and deeper ties. What remains to be seen is how long the pagodas can retain their shine.