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| Yes, you will all get the freebies |
The results for Delhi elections
are trickling in for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and pouring in for the
Aam Admi Party (AAP). The early trends suggest a land slide for AAP. Prima facie,
it looks like a case of socialist promises of freebies and a negative campaign
run by the BJP, winning over everything else. The imminent defeat of the BJP is
strikingly similar to the rout faced by the Indian National Congress (INC) in
recent Lok Sabha elections. The INC for long thought handouts will win them
votes and allies. It miserably failed to gauge the change in public opinion and
demography. An aspirational middle class with a demographic bulge was in no
mood to fall for utopia. The BJP campaign was carefully planned around the
aspirations of an emerging India and the voters rewarded it (though the cart
load of scams perpetrated by the INC and its allies contributed to its loss). Just
nine months down the line, the BJP seems to have misjudged the voters. It has
done an INC.
The huge vote share (more than
50% according to early counting trends), will obviously make the AAP supporters
euphoric. They ran a relentless campaign and ensured a massive shift in
traditional vote banks. The expectations form the new government are hazy at
best. The previous stint of 49 days was a disaster and left Delhi without a
government for almost a year. One can only hope that this time around with a decisive
mandate, the AAP will deliver some of its promises. Unlike last elections they
have refrained from giving deadlines for their promises. This is sensible,
especially when realpolitik is a different animal than street politics. The
only fear Indian Affairs has is, Arvind Kejriwal turning into a Mamata
Banerjee, who still has to come to terms of being a Chief Minister and not a
street protestor anymore. Hopefully Kejriwal has learnt his lesson from the 49
days in power.
What was touted as a close
contest by the BJP is turning out to be the most disastrous result for them. Kiran
bedi, the Chief Ministerial candidate trailing (and probably losing to AAP) talks
volumes about the way the party carried out its campaign. Hubris is all one can
blame it on. There would be many rounds of postmortem in the BJP war room,
blames would be assigned and scapegoats sacrificed. What the party really needs
is realigning. For a start it should
avoid doing an “India shining” all over again. The first National Democratic Alliance
(NDA) government carried out large scale reforms, fruits of which were reaped
by the succeeding United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.
If the NDA wants to keep its
voters in good humour, it should have a two prong strategy. Carry on with the
reforms, which will bear fruit in the long run and identify quick-wins at the
same time. A nuclear deal or make in India will take their own time, meandering
through bureaucracy and the federal structure. The results may not be visible
in the next two or three years. The benefits of which, might take even longer
to reach the bottom of the pyramid (the most critical section of voters). On the
other hand schemes like Jan-Dhan Yojna can be leveraged relatively quickly to
show impact on the masses. Though the reform agenda and the social media blitz
the government has embarked upon bodes well with the middle class, it has
little or no relevance to the masses.
To capture the imagination of the
masses, NDA should not get into a populist binge mode. The right approach will
be to balance the big ticket reforms with quick-wins. Access to quality education,
formal banking, utilities (Water, energy, sanitation) and infrastructure will
immediately benefit people even in the remotest of corners. Ensuring teacher attendance,
direct cash transfers, holding utility operators accountable and fast tracking
infrastructure projects can show results in a short period of time.
The roumours have it that the BJP
is struggling with internal dissent. The Modi, Amit shah combine has sure
rattled a lot of feathers in the party. Containing the dissent from the sundry
sadhus and sadhvis to veterans in the party will not be easy. The rules of the
game cannot be changed overnight. Will the NDA learn its lesson from the
humiliation in Delhi is yet to be seen. More interesting will be to see how the
AAP keeps its socialist promises and how it finds the money despite lowering
tax rates.
