The Bihar assembly results are
out and open to interpretation. There will be dissection, postmortem and blame
fixing in the coming days. On the face of it, the resounding victory of the
Grand Alliance, brings out some very interesting facts. First, the clean image of
Nitish Kumar was a factor that helped, but his image was not clean enough and
the Janata Dal (United) could only win 71 of the 101 seats it contested. Second,
though the clean image of Nitish Kumar made him a popular Chief Minister, a
corrupt and convicted Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal bagged 80 of the 101
seats it contested. Third, Indian National Congress, which was reduced to a
humiliating four seats in the outgoing assembly managed to win 27 seats this
time. Fourth, the huge crowds that the Prime Minister pulled during
his 30 rallies in the state, did not like his message and hence voted someone
else.
There are many reasons, which
worked in favour of the Grand Alliance and pushed it to a two-thirds majority
in the assembly. Similarly there are reasons, which lead to the crushing defeat
of National Democratic Alliance. Some of the reasons that immediately come to
mind are similar to the ones that failed corporations face during their
turnaround. At the end of the last parliament, India was similar to a failing
organisation. Big ticket scams, slowing economy, non-existent foreign policy,
cash guzzling and zero value social programmes (MNREGA) and fuel subsidies were
pulling the country down. India was not allowed to live up to its potential.
Failing corporations employ
experienced consultants to turnaround the company. The consultants in turn use
tried and tested (sometimes radical) measures to re-engineer the processes and
bring in efficiencies. The Modi government promised a similar re-engineering
for India. But the similarities end there. A good consultant knows that
challenging the status-quo will inevitably bring resistance. Change is the only
constant, yet it is the most difficult thing to accept. Try bringing in a
radical change in an organisation and it is doomed to fail. The consultants
know this and they have found a way around. For the entire organisation to see
the benefit of the turnaround exercise, they use quick wins. Quick wins are
tasks that are easy to do, take little time to implement but show results that
are visible and tangible.
Once the quick win succeeds the
rest of the organisation can be easily taken on board and they will act as
partners in the turnaround. The Modi government failed in identifying quick
wins. Let alone implementing them. The government embarked upon dream projects
like Make in India and Swachh Bharat. Both very well meaning projects and will yield
results, but in the long run. The mammoth task of bringing millions in the
banking network was achieved rather swiftly but again it falls short on
expectations. Having a bank account is good but there has to be enough money in
it for the account holder to benefit.
The PM is repeating the mistakes
the Vajpayee government made. Stressing on big ticket reforms at the cost of
quick wins cost them the 2004 elections and the UPA I reaped the benefits five
years later.
One of the easiest quick wins for
the government is job creation. Job creation in semi-skilled sector. That is where
the rural population hunts for employment. The government should emphasis on
sectors like highway and manufacturing. These are labour intensive sectors and
have a high multiplier effect. Red tape and archaic concession agreements make
it difficult for the private sector to bid aggressively and for the government
to close the transaction efficiently.
A construction site or a factory
not only provides employment to the actual workers, it also generates business
opportunities for transport companies, taxi services, restaurants, hospitals, housing
companies, and so on, creating further employment opportunities. It helps
create an ecosystem, which brings in prosperity and jobs to a region.
So far the government has done
things for India, it is now time to do things for Bharat. Gold monetisation
might attract India but a country where two thirds of the population is poor,
Bharat might find it elitist. The government has lost a year and a half, if it
does not wake up to quick wins, it might see a repeat of 2004 and the next
government will reap the benefits of the long term reforms that the Modi government
is carrying out today. Bihar is a warning bell and we know for whom it tolls.
