 |
| Oh! I managed the GCC PC: Hindustan Times |
The historic visit of PM Modi to Israel is important
on many fronts. The first is the dehyphenation of Israel from Palestine. The
importance of dehyphenation was discussed widely on TV debates last night. Pro
BJP panellists and BJP spokes persons drew analogy from the dehyphenation of India
and Pakistan by America and by other western countries. This is important
because international diplomacy does not depend on keeping everyone happy.
Diplomacy is an act of shrewdness, where the sole aim is self-preservation. But
is that the only reason India changed its seventy year old stand?
There are other factors that have led to this
change. For starters it is the realisation that the Indian Muslims are not
going to go berserk over India’s close ties with Israel. This might sound a bit
strange but it is the truth. Read what Al
Jazeera has to say on this. In fact all previous governments were probably
aware of this misconception. They simply lacked the courage to take the step.
It finally took a non-Gandhi Congress Prime
Minister to established full diplomatic ties with Israel, twenty five years
ago. That was the time for India to shake away the imagined fear and go ahead
with closer ties with Israel. But Political instability and ascend of Sonia
Gandhi to the throne dragged India back into its shell. It is hard to imagine
why the Congress and the UPA were so scared of taking Indo-Israel relations
forward. The loudest pro-Palestinian voices one hears are either from the loony
Left or their foot soldiers on Twitter. Majority of Muslims in India are more worried
about jobs, education and healthcare like other Indians.
Secondly the politics in the Middle East has
changed completely. It was thought that supporting Israel will isolate India in
the Arab world, especially the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Millions of Indians work in the GCC countries and remit billions of dollars
every year.
The seventy or so years of Palestinian support
has not got India anywhere with the Arab world. India, despite its multiple
efforts, was not allowed to join the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
India never got support from OIC on Kashmir and probably never got any
favourable deal on the oil imports. So there was no real benefit to India from
its pro Palestine stand.
The other change that happened in the Middle
East was the internal feud of the GCC countries. Before the Arab Spring, the
only factions in the Middle East were the Sunnis led by the Saudis and the
Shias represented by Iran. Their attempts to dominate the Muslim world resulted
in regional wars. Post the Arab Spring, things changed and a third country
emerged as a power broker. The Qataris sitting on huge gas reserves have the
cash to extend influence. In a new three cornered Arab world it is easy to play
one against the other. More over the internal frictions often result in
extremely favourable oil prices for rest of the world. Saudi Arabia increased
its oil output in 2012 only to render the Iranian oil cheaper. Qatar
is doing the same today.
Cheap oil is one thing but we all know this
will never last. What is, perhaps, prompting India to take the risk of being
deprived of gulf oil is its huge domestic market and its increasing shift
towards renewables. India is too big to be ignored by anyone, including the oil
exporters. OPEC has never been united on oil production and it probably never
be. There will always be willing exporters ready to send oil to Indian refineries.
On the renewable front India has made great
progress and as much as 17% of its installed capacity supplies clean energy. In
fact the actual price of solar energy has gone below
the per unit price of thermal energy. So the future belongs to clean energy and
not oil. The confidence with which India has adopted 2032 as the year of zero
carbon powered cars clearly shows the intent. The only reason the GCC and Iran
are relevant to India, may not exist in future.
Thirdly there is Make in India. The western
countries have shown their interest and intent but the works that have or may
arrive to Indian shop floors are not cutting edge. Chinese manufacturers are bringing
in mobile assembly plants and other low tech manufacturing but that can only
provide low tech jobs. Israel on the other hand is willing to transfer
technology in the high tech sector. That is where the real gains are to be
made.
So there might be some extraneous noise on the
deepening ties of India and Israel (mostly from the opposition and some attention
seeking activists), the ground realities are very different.
