Once upon a time
Throughout the post war period and until the
fall of Soviet Union, the world order was bipolar. At one end was the capitalist
United States with its European allies and on other was a socialist Soviet Union
with its European members behind the “iron curtain”. There was a third but
insignificant pole, the nonaligned group of mainly poor countries. The third
pole or the third world eventually became synonymous to poverty and to this
date, the term “poor countries” and “third world countries” are used interchangeably.
The world order changed in the post-Soviet era.
The cold war came to an end and Russia descended into an economic nightmare.
The “shock therapy” Boris Yeltsin administered to the markets resulted in crony
capitalism and hyperinflation, wiping out savings of common citizens. The world
ceased to be bipolar and America more or less dominated the global landscape. Meanwhile
elsewhere in the world, new equations were being written. China had started to
show signs of tremendous economic potential and India opened up for investment.
The dragon, the elephant and the pivot to Asia
The fall of Soviet Union seemed to have
perfectly timed with events elsewhere. The next two decades proved that the
world was no longer unipolar (as America would like to believe) or even bipolar.
The rise of third world has created a multipolar world. The first world saw a
decline, both in economic and military power. America ended up being entangled
in a bloody mess in West Asia while its European allies struggled with
recession and plummeting defence spending (most of the NATO members fall short
of the 2% targets on defence spending). China rose to prominence, both in
economic and military terms. India, despite its bureaucracy and lethargy turned
out to be of immense interest to western world. President Obama shifted his
interest to “pivot to Asia”. President Putin safely installed himself as a long
term ruler of Russia and opened up another power centre with his plans to counter
the European Union. The mess in Ukraine is a fine example of EU – Russia power
game.
With a multipolar world inevitable, where does India
stand in the scheme of things? In his just concluded visit, the Australian
Prime Minister Tony Abbott said, “India is an emerging democratic superpower”. It
is hard to say whether he was referring to India’s vibrant democracy or referring
to India as an emerging superpower in literal terms. Whatever the case be, India
is attracting more attention than ever. The biggest advantage (or disadvantage)
is India’s proximity to China. It assures, no one should feel threatened with
the “peaceful rise” of China. But the territorial disputes with almost all its
neighbours and a claim to almost all of South China Sea has always betrayed the
assurance China gives on its peaceful rise.
Will the Buddha smile?
From Myanmar to Japan, countries are deeply
suspicious of China’s expansionist threat. India comes as a natural counterbalance due to its economic potential and to some extent military deterrence. Since a
few years Asian countries have tried to cosy up to India in an attempt to send
a message to China. It is unlikely that India will play a role of a military
superpower, the way America has played in the past or the way China intends to.
The situation however provides for a very good opportunity where India can
secure its national interest and open up new opportunities for its businesses
abroad and invite businesses to India and create employment.
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Singapore, Vietnam, Japan, Myanmar, all at some
point have shown keen interest in doing business with India. Most of the time
the reason behind such warmth is a mix of business interest and a rising China.
Under the previous administration of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, India did
not seize the opportunity. The incumbent has shown a clear departure in foreign
policy from his predecessor. In the first one hundred days in office the Prime Minister
has travelled to Bhutan, Nepal and Japan. He sent his minister for foreign
affairs, Sushma Swaraj to at least half a dozen countries in the same period.
His Australian counterpart recently concluded his two day visit, which also saw
an agreement on civil nuclear partnership.
All this will prove useful only if the visits
are turned into concrete business opportunities. The equation of supply and
demand will dictate the market, as usual. The world needs India as a counter
balance to rising China. India needs the world to set manufacturing base in India
and new markets for Indian businesses. The equation is perfect.
If one were to put a red flag on power centres
of the world today, there would be one too close to another. America, the EU,
Russia, India, China and Japan are all trying to make space for their ambitious
plans or are struggling to hold on to what they fear losing.
Territorial expansion died in twentieth century
(still thriving in Russia). Today the struggle is about control over resources
and markets. The fear of a not so peaceful China rising will bring countries
together. India has as much to watch out for as far away Japan. The big
question is, “will India stand up to the occasion”?
