Prime Minister Modi invited the
heads of the members of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
to his swearing in ceremony. His Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Sharif
attended the ceremony, which lead to a series of media debates on how the new
government is giving out signals of restarting the relationship with Pakistan.
Influential journalists from the English media even coined phrases like “sari/shawl
diplomacy”, in response to PM Modi sending a shawl to PM Sharif’s mother and
the latter reciprocating it with a sari to PM Modi’s mother.
But as always the hype was short
lived and there were a series of ceasefire violation along the Line of Control and
the international border in Jammu and Kashmir. There was another deliberate
attempt by the Pakistani High Commissioner Mr Abdul Basit to annoy the Indian
government. The High Commissioner met Mr Sayed Ali Shah Geelani, leader of the
All Party Hurriyet Conference, a secessionist group operating from the Kashmir
valley. The response from India was to call off the secretary level talks
scheduled for 25th August.
Such incidents have happened in
the past. India tried to talk peace and was reciprocated with ceasefire
violations and even localized war (Kargil 1999). The main reason why all the
past attempts to establish peace have failed, is the absence of a unified
command in Pakistan. There are three states acting within the country. The
elected government, the sundry terrorist groups in the tribal areas and
Baluchistan and the all-powerful Pakistani army-ISI nexus. The civilian
government has no real power and is always dictated by the army-ISI nexus. The “khaki
capitalism” that previous Pakistani generals created has become too big and it
only makes sense for the army to keep things under its control. A 2007 book by
Ayesha Siddiqa, “Military Inc. - Inside Pakistan's Military Economy” suggests
that the total assets under the army control are USD 20 billion, half of it
land holdings. An article on Guardian covering the book can be read here.
With such huge stakes at hand the Pakistani military will never want peace with
India. That would eventually mean no money for weapon stockpiling and hence no
source of income.
The relations between India and
Pakistan have been at a stage where India should take a step back and look at
the larger picture. It is time to shed the obsession with Pakistan and work on
others. The new government appears to have done that by engaging with its
neighbours. The PM chose Bhutan for his maiden visit followed by Nepal. The response
to his visit in both the countries was exceptionally warm. After a long time
there are no Indian fishermen in the Sri Lankan prisons. Foreign minister
Sushma Swaraj recently concluded her four day multilateral visit to Myanmar. This
is a clear departure from the previous government’s stand on foreign engagement.
To put it bluntly, there is no
need to go the extra mile to make friends with Pakistan. The country is
constantly on the list of failed states, is rife with terrorist and secessionist
groups, the economy is in tatters and there is no “real” government to talk to.
India would do much better by focusing its energy on the countries which want
to work with India and share the fruits of its economic growth.
 |
| Lets broaden the road of friendship |
The biggest untapped potential is
Myanmar. There are two reasons why the country is important. First it was until
recently a closed economy run by the military junta. That has changed. Aung
Sang Su Kyi has been released from house arrest and is most likely to run for
president in the next elections. Second, it is a member of the Association of South
East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Indian Affairs has in its previous posts stressed the
need to capture the ASEAN market. The prime focus should be on connectivity
between the two countries and cross border trade. The much talked about India,
Myanmar, Thailand trilateral highway should be put on a priority. Not only will
it help Indian businesses but the biggest beneficiary would be the much
neglected North East India.
The trilateral highway will also
provide much needed market access to land locked Nepal and Bhutan. Private
business should take advantage of the resource rich Myanmar and set up
manufacturing units, which can supply the products to the ASEAN countries.
India’s auto sector, particularly the two-wheeler segment has huge potential in
Myanmar and other ASEAN countries. TVS started its manufacturing plant in Indonesia
in 2007 and the venture is expected to breakeven this year. Myanmar has its
problems, mainly infrastructure, but a first mover advantage might just
compensate for the lack of infrastructure, which will be in place, eventually.
With the new government there is
a fresh chance to act rationally than emotionally on India’s foreign policy
matters. PM Modi was born after India’s independence and has no personal
relationship with Pakistan, unlike the previous PM, Mr Singh. The business
minded approach of PM Modi and lack of emotional baggage will help him in
dealing objectively with our neighbours. Let us see whether the new government
seizes the opportunity or repeats the mistakes of the previous governments.
