At the stroke of the midnight hour when the world was sleeping, India
was divided into two countries based on religion. What followed was an orgy of
hate, riots, arson, rape and murder. Communal tensions started brewing much
before the actual date of partition. The days following 15th August
were the most dreadful. An estimated 10 million people migrated between India
and Pakistan (many locked their homes believing they will return once the
matter cools down) making it the largest mass migration in human history. The
violence that engulfed large part of northern and eastern India during those
few months lead to many deaths. Official records were scarce but estimates put
the number to around a million. India and Pakistan never managed to reconcile.
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| Who can kick harder? |
Four wars have been fought between India and Pakistan and border
skirmishes are common. Though there is an agreed ceasefire between the two
countries the troops regularly exchange fire. People to people contact on both
sides of the border is scarce and there is a deep trust deficit. Regular export
of terrorism by Pakistan since the early 90s has not helped the matter at all.
The army of Pakistan which also acts as capitalist force (Pakistani armed force
controls a USD 10 billion business empire manufacturing everything from
fertilizers to breakfast cereals) has successfully managed to keep the fear
psychosis alive in Pakistan. The defense budget of Pakistan for fiscal year
2012-13 is PKR 800 billion (USD 8.21 billion) 28% of the total budget spending.
The line between politics and armed forces in Pakistan is so blurred
that the election commission wants the army to supervise the elections later
this year. The election commission has also ordered verification of electoral
rolls to be carried out under supervision of the army. No one knows for sure
who between the army and the civilian government rules the state. This is one
of the biggest problems when it comes to negotiating peace with Pakistan. The
Pakistani army is interested in keeping the fire burning. If in the coming
decades the relationship between India and Pakistan normalize there will be a
heavy reduction in defense spending and the army will be sent back to the
barracks. Obviously they do not want to be sidelined.
The civilian governments of Pakistan tried in the past to patch up with
India (once even a general after staging a coup got talking to India) but their
military always betrayed them. The recent violation of cease fire in Kashmir is
one such example. Two Indian soldiers were killed and their bodies mutilated by
the Pakistani troops in an ambush. Meanwhile Pakistan is claiming that Indian
troops shot down one of their soldiers. Such news acts as fodder for the
jingoists on both sides of the border. Many Indians want a “final” war on
Pakistan, some want it to be nuked, some sane types prefer surgical strikes and
almost every one firmly agrees that the government is spineless.
From similar experiences around the world we know that a “final” war does
not exist, nukes are at best deterrents and military strikes have not wiped out
Taliban in Afghanistan even after ten years. Is there a solution to this unending
battle? No one knows. There will have to be many changes on both sides of the
border. More on the Pakistani side than on the Indian. Political situation in
Pakistan has to stabilize, its home grown and military financed terror networks
have to be disbanded and honest textbooks should replace the present anti India
ones. All this might never happen or at best take many decades. India cannot
and should not wait for the right moment to arrive.
India is yet to harness its growing power on the international high
table. Ministry of external affair finds it difficult to manage the various
stakeholders at once. Severe staff shortage and misplaced foreign policies have
made India a dwarf in the international arena. Till 9/11 the western world saw
the India – Pakistan relationship from the Pakistani point of view. Aggressive diplomacy
and friendly relationship with the US helped Pakistan a lot. India’s repeated
allegation of state sponsored terrorism by Pakistan fell on deaf ears.
With no solution in sight, India should embark upon a two prong long
term strategy. First is to engage into aggressive diplomacy and second to
engage with Pakistan at multiple levels. The international community has
finally recognized the issue of Pakistan and its terror networks. Post 2014
when the American forces move out the interest in Pakistan too will diminish. India
should be worried about such a situation. This is the time when it should
engage in a high level dialogue with not just America but also with other stakeholders
like China and Turkey. India should also turn out as a matured democracy in the
UN. As an aspirant of a permanent seat on the Security Council it should
demonstrate its willingness to engage in world matters than abstaining on
matters of world interest in a vote.
Engagement with Pakistan is a necessity. One cannot wish away its
neighbours. The current level of engagement is a good step forward. But this
can only happen if Pakistan plays ball.
