On Saturday the
11th of May 2013, Pakistan for the first time in its history will
vote to transfer power from one civilian government to the other. In the past
six decades the country has never had a civilian government, which completed
its term. Much of the time was spent by the army to introduce martial law and
rule by decree. The army ceased to be looked as defenders of the frontiers; it
was now saviour of the Pakistani people. The last popular army dictator was
General Parvez Musharraf (he later resigned from the army and assumed the role
of a civilian president). Democracy never really got a chance to take roots in
Pakistan.
For the first
time since Pakistan’s independence, things are looking bright and
understandably so. The Pakistani media celebrated the successful completion of
the full term of the parliament and hoped that it will now be a regular
feature. In fact if this indeed becomes a regular feature, it will be
beneficial for both Pakistan and its neighbours. A civilian government has
different priorities and is more accommodating to public sentiments. The long
rule of Generals has created an environment where Pakistan is projected as a
victim of international conspiracy and constantly under existential threat
(largely from India). Riding high on such imagined threat, the army managed to
take control of almost one fifth (18%) of the total budget expenditure.
A civilian
government is accountable to the people who voted it in (unlike a general who
usually rules without any accountability and retires in a posh London or Dubai
neighbourhood). The civilian government will also try to bring economic
prosperity and sense of security to its people. Both are severely lacking in
present day Pakistan, having said that it will be a tall order for any party
which manages to form the government. Over the past decade or so, since the war
on terror arrived in Pakistan, the country has been consumed in violence. Daily
terror attacks, sectarian violence and political rivalry (called target
killings) are no longer seen as something extraordinary. Billions of dollars of
aid money (given by America in return of cooperation in the war on terror) has
been siphoned off to secrete bank accounts or put to use in arming the forces. Little
has reached the common man.
Over the years
during its rule the army has managed to build a massive business empire of its
own (The unending battle).
The National Logistics Cell (NLC), the army owned trucking company is today the
largest of its kind in Pakistan and has crushed private competition. Being a monopoly
and a state enterprise the generals controlling the company have made sure that
Pakistani railways is turned into an inefficient liability, making NLC more
reliable. The various army business interests now work in absolute monopoly.
For any civilian government to reverse the trend might mean risking another
coup. But there are lessons to learn from. Turkey had a similar problem when
the Generals there were powerful and controlled huge businesses. Today they are
cut to size. The economic interest of the army is still high but is lower since
its peak in pre Erdogan era. Pakistan can borrow a page from Turkey to tackle
its own army.
Another challenge
facing Pakistan is its political infighting and party rivalries. Target
killings have become a routine in Karachi. Political parties formed on ethnic
and linguistic basis fight turf wars and have turned pocket of Karachi into “no
go” areas. The situation in Baluchistan is no better. A long running separatist
insurgency has turned the gas rich province into a backward quarter of
Pakistan. People are regularly kidnapped never to be seen again. Headless bodies
later appear and identification becomes impossible. The central government
seems indifferent to the situation there, though the Awami National Party from
Baluchistan is an ally of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party. Amid such
challenging environment the various strains of Taliban only add to the grief.
The home grown terror organisations carry out suicide attacks on a regular
basis, targeting political rallies, army garrisons, minority processions and
their places of worship.
Changing all
this and providing its people a better Pakistan to live will be a long drawn battle
for the civilian government. The mess created in the last six decades cannot be
sorted out in the next five years. Things that might accelerate the process of
bringing back the country on track may include the following
- Tackling the terrorists in tribal areas before final pull out of NATO forces from Afghanistan
- Making peace with Afghanistan and helping it fight the terrorists on both sides of the Durand line
- Tackling the terrorist modules working against India in the Kashmir region
- Making peace with the Baluch insurgents and share the gas revenue with them
Majority of
Pakistan’s problems will get sorted out if it manages to eliminate the
terrorists on its soil. The next step will be to claim its share in the
regional economy. With two giant economies in its neighbourhood, it will be
foolish not to ride on their success. This will not happen overnight. But the
election is a right step in that direction.
