If the next Lok Sabha elections are held on
social media, Narendra Modi (Prime ministerial candidate of the opposition) will
probably win hands down. In the past few months there have been various opinion
polls suggesting that Modi leads his closest rival, Rahul Gandhi (heir of the
ruling Congress party) by several miles when it comes to the choice of next
prime minister of India. The Business Standard ran an article on September 12,
2013, summarizing the trends of seven opinion polls conducted in the recent
past. According to the article, two clear trends emerge from the
findings. First is the rise of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, right of centre) and
National Democratic Alliance (BJP and its allies) as the single largest party
and pre poll alliance respectively. Second is, huge losses for Congress
(between 75 to 90 seats). What will actually happen in 2014 is anybody’s guess,
but BJP is definitely enjoying high approval ratings in almost a decade. Social
media and other internet platforms are inundated with pro Modi and pro BJP
comments, sometimes even bordering jingoism. On the other hand Congress
supporters seem to struggle a lot in defending the indefensible series of
scandals and poor governance.
Outside the social media, the recent public
speeches by Modi in various Indian cities have demonstrated his popularity among
a large section of urban and semi urban population too (in some cases people
paid to attend his public rallies). He seems to have the backing of the middle
class. Though there are no clear polls suggesting Modi’s popularity among the
rural voters, it can be assumed (based on the other surveys conducted on random
samples) that he has some support in the rural constituencies too. Now let us
imagine a scenario where Modi is indeed chosen as the next prime minister of
India. What should the voters expect from him?
 |
| I have an idea, or two |
If one reads through the comments on major news
paper websites, one thing that catches the attention is the expectation people
have from Modi. From rising onion prices to the latest scandal, violation of
cease fire on the Line of Control with Pakistan to Tamil fishermen being
arrested by Sri Lankan navy, Narendra Modi seems to be the answer to every
single problem the urban internet users face. For the ears of BJP and Modi this
might be the best music they heard in a while. But let us not forget that it was
the same group of middle class, Internet using Indians who marched the streets
of Delhi and other cities in support of the anti corruption movement headed by
Anna Hazare, it was the same middle class which once again took to the streets
to protest against the rape and subsequent death of a student in Delhi. Such was
the force of Indian middle class that the government was forced to give in and
discuss changes in legislation well into the night.
In the past there have been no attempts from either
the BJP or Modi to tone down the expectations people have from them in the next
government. This probably suits them well for the time being. But with so much that
is wrong with the economy, governance, public health, law and order, etc it
will probably take more than just five years to show visible improvement. It
takes years for the economy to show any sign of growth after a few bad years.
The American economy despite the quantitative easing took almost five years to
recover and things are still not the same as they used to. Any improvement in
governance might require constitutional amendments. This means long
negotiations with the opposition and possibility of a deadlock. These issues
are just the tip of the iceberg. The real problems might be worse.
Modi should come up with a separate strategy to
manage the expectations people have from him. The middle class, who today is
willing to put him on the pedestal, will not hesitate to pull him down if he
does not meet their expectations.
