Here Udayan Mukherjee, an economist from JNU and former host at CNBC talks about a 'what if' scenario for Scroll.
The write up is on predictable lines. A lot of rhetoric and wordplay with zero data supporting any of the claims made there. After dedicating the initial paragraphs to the possible scenarios of the NDA managing or not managing to form the next government, Mukherjee arrives at his core subject, financial market.
The tone of the article is aligned to the editorial policy of Scroll. A heady mix of hubris, mocking and patronizing attitude, which is fine. Scroll has every right to pick a tone that plays to its gallery.
Mukherjee says, 'Modi did nothing to change the course of markets in his five years...'
The
stock market works primarily on cues from
many different sectors like
government policy, economic reforms, currency fluctuation, domestic
consumption, foreign trade and so on. But the market also functions on
'sentiments' and 'speculations'. The sensex gained 25% between Sep 2013 and May 2014,
compared to the 42% gains it made since UPA-II came to power and Sep 2013 when
Modi was declared the PM candidate. So yes, the government has a role to play
in the stock market performance, but there are other factors that come into
play.
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| They say all is Kaput Image: Scroll.in |
Next he
paints a gloomy picture of the economy where from jobs to exports to
manufacturing, everything is a big mess. He says, '...but any dispensation
would have to tend to this [economic situation] – either through a well thought
out fiscal stimulus and credit enhancement blueprint or NYAY or some form of
basic income guarantee.'
Now
when an economist starts supporting a handout programme, one can be assured
that the economist has become partisan. Mukherjee supports NYAY, which is a
Congress plan to 'revive' the economy. It plans to hand out 72,000 rupees to
every poor family to boost consumption and hence the economy.
On
paper it sounds like a brilliant idea. Sadly such ideas have shown limited
results in countries with formalised system of identification of poor. Here the
Congress plans to rely on certificates issued by Tehsildars to identify the
poor. I don't even want to tell you how a certificate from Tehsildar can be
bought.
The
latter part of the article delves into more sarcasm and less data. The problem
with such one sided articles is that anyone with half a brain can see through
the rhetoric and bias. Mukherjee makes motherhood statements without backing
them up with any data. This might be due to the fact that a trained economist,
whose words should be backed by solid data, has delved into fiction writing
(his first being Dark Circles).
So yes,
Modi might well lose this election and spectacularly at that. But painting a
picture of gloom and doom is not going to make it happen. Such articles might
make the BJP haters happy, since most of them do not understand data in the
first place. But facts are more important than how a certain economist feels or
thinks like.
