The bigger picture

Prime Minister Modi invited the heads of the members of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to his swearing in ceremony. His Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Sharif attended the ceremony, which lead to a series of media debates on how the new government is giving out signals of restarting the relationship with Pakistan. Influential journalists from the English media even coined phrases like “sari/shawl diplomacy”, in response to PM Modi sending a shawl to PM Sharif’s mother and the latter reciprocating it with a sari to PM Modi’s mother.

But as always the hype was short lived and there were a series of ceasefire violation along the Line of Control and the international border in Jammu and Kashmir. There was another deliberate attempt by the Pakistani High Commissioner Mr Abdul Basit to annoy the Indian government. The High Commissioner met Mr Sayed Ali Shah Geelani, leader of the All Party Hurriyet Conference, a secessionist group operating from the Kashmir valley. The response from India was to call off the secretary level talks scheduled for 25^th August.

Such incidents have happened in the past. India tried to talk peace and was reciprocated with ceasefire violations and even localized war (Kargil 1999). The main reason why all the past attempts to establish peace have failed, is the absence of a unified command in Pakistan. There are three states acting within the country. The elected government, the sundry terrorist groups in the tribal areas and Baluchistan and the all-powerful Pakistani army-ISI nexus. The civilian government has no real power and is always dictated by the army-ISI nexus. The “khaki capitalism” that previous Pakistani generals created has become too big and it only makes sense for the army to keep things under its control. A 2007 book by Ayesha Siddiqa, “Military Inc. - Inside Pakistan's Military Economy” suggests that the total assets under the army control are USD 20 billion, half of it land holdings. An article on Guardian covering the book can be read here. With such huge stakes at hand the Pakistani military will never want peace with India. That would eventually mean no money for weapon stockpiling and hence no source of income.

The relations between India and Pakistan have been at a stage where India should take a step back and look at the larger picture. It is time to shed the obsession with Pakistan and work on others. The new government appears to have done that by engaging with its neighbours. The PM chose Bhutan for his maiden visit followed by Nepal. The response to his visit in both the countries was exceptionally warm. After a long time there are no Indian fishermen in the Sri Lankan prisons. Foreign minister Sushma Swaraj recently concluded her four day multilateral visit to Myanmar. This is a clear departure from the previous government’s stand on foreign engagement.

To put it bluntly, there is no need to go the extra mile to make friends with Pakistan. The country is constantly on the list of failed states, is rife with terrorist and secessionist groups, the economy is in tatters and there is no “real” government to talk to. India would do much better by focusing its energy on the countries which want to work with India and share the fruits of its economic growth.

Lets broaden the road of friendship

The biggest untapped potential is Myanmar. There are two reasons why the country is important. First it was until recently a closed economy run by the military junta. That has changed. Aung Sang Su Kyi has been released from house arrest and is most likely to run for president in the next elections. Second, it is a member of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Indian Affairs has in its previous posts stressed the need to capture the ASEAN market. The prime focus should be on connectivity between the two countries and cross border trade. The much talked about India, Myanmar, Thailand trilateral highway should be put on a priority. Not only will it help Indian businesses but the biggest beneficiary would be the much neglected North East India.

The trilateral highway will also provide much needed market access to land locked Nepal and Bhutan. Private business should take advantage of the resource rich Myanmar and set up manufacturing units, which can supply the products to the ASEAN countries. India’s auto sector, particularly the two-wheeler segment has huge potential in Myanmar and other ASEAN countries. TVS started its manufacturing plant in Indonesia in 2007 and the venture is expected to breakeven this year. Myanmar has its problems, mainly infrastructure, but a first mover advantage might just compensate for the lack of infrastructure, which will be in place, eventually.

With the new government there is a fresh chance to act rationally than emotionally on India’s foreign policy matters. PM Modi was born after India’s independence and has no personal relationship with Pakistan, unlike the previous PM, Mr Singh. The business minded approach of PM Modi and lack of emotional baggage will help him in dealing objectively with our neighbours. Let us see whether the new government seizes the opportunity or repeats the mistakes of the previous governments.

  

India and its near neighbours

Six Decades and counting

After sixty four years and five wars, India is yet to sort a single dispute with its neighbours. On the contrary it has got itself into uncomfortable situation in the past. Be it the peacekeeping forces in Sri Lanka or constant meddling in the internal affairs of Nepal. Relationships with the neighbours are anything but cordial.

In 1971, India championed the cause of Bangladesh and helped carve a new country in South Asia. The first government of Bangladesh lead by Sheikh Mujibur Rehman looked all set to enter into a long lasting friendship with Mrs Gandhi. The dream met a premature end with the coup in 1975, which wiped out most of Bangladesh’s first family. India hardly took a second look at Bangladesh after that. With India getting more and more obsessed with its western neighbour Pakistan in the past few decades, there was hardly any attention paid to rest of neighbourhood.

India’s issues with Pakistan are deep rooted and extremely sensitive with its political class. It can be safely assumed that all the issues with Pakistan (including Kashmir) can not be resolved overnight or even in the medium term. However, this should not distract the attention of Ministry of External Affairs from its near neighbours. Pakistan is and will be an ongoing affair for a long time to come. India should spare some energy and resources to mend its ties with countries which can prove to be long term partners in regional cooperation.

What can we do?

Handing out aid is not a guarantee to good relations. Had it been the case, America should have been the world’s best friend. Secondly India can not afford to offer aid on a large scale, given the fact that there is a pressing need for social development with in the country. Under such circumstances the best way forward is to engage in increased business activity. And for once, these business activities should move beyond exchanging a few truck loads of onion and sugar, which only helps a handful of people that too for an extremely short period of time.

The long term strategy for India should be to establish business relations with countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal on a larger scale. Bangladesh after a long time has a friendly government in power. Civil war in Sri Lanka has come to an end and Nepal will sooner or later have a full time prime minister. Given these favourable situations India should push for large scale contribution to these countries in form of setting up manufacturing facilities and some kind of secondary outsourcing (which some big Indian companies already are doing with South East Asian countries).

India should look for incentives for its private sector companies from sectors like two wheelers, pharmaceuticals, FMCG, BPOs, etc to set shop in countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. This will prove to be a win all situation for the countries. The local population will benefit from employment generated at the manufacturing unit, the economy will benefit from the money pumped in, the parent company will benefit from incentives and possible relaxation in export rules to foreign markets (Bangladesh gets substantial tariff exemption for its textile export to Europe).

Economic and trade connection will inevitably bring in more people to people contact, which in turn will help reduce the trust deficit. All three countries mentioned share very close cultural, linguistic and religious bonds with India. A little push on the economic front can change the way South Asians see each other. But before India does any of this, it should raise the profile of the ministry of external affairs.