The bigger picture

Prime Minister Modi invited the heads of the members of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) to his swearing in ceremony. His Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Sharif attended the ceremony, which lead to a series of media debates on how the new government is giving out signals of restarting the relationship with Pakistan. Influential journalists from the English media even coined phrases like “sari/shawl diplomacy”, in response to PM Modi sending a shawl to PM Sharif’s mother and the latter reciprocating it with a sari to PM Modi’s mother.

But as always the hype was short lived and there were a series of ceasefire violation along the Line of Control and the international border in Jammu and Kashmir. There was another deliberate attempt by the Pakistani High Commissioner Mr Abdul Basit to annoy the Indian government. The High Commissioner met Mr Sayed Ali Shah Geelani, leader of the All Party Hurriyet Conference, a secessionist group operating from the Kashmir valley. The response from India was to call off the secretary level talks scheduled for 25^th August.

Such incidents have happened in the past. India tried to talk peace and was reciprocated with ceasefire violations and even localized war (Kargil 1999). The main reason why all the past attempts to establish peace have failed, is the absence of a unified command in Pakistan. There are three states acting within the country. The elected government, the sundry terrorist groups in the tribal areas and Baluchistan and the all-powerful Pakistani army-ISI nexus. The civilian government has no real power and is always dictated by the army-ISI nexus. The “khaki capitalism” that previous Pakistani generals created has become too big and it only makes sense for the army to keep things under its control. A 2007 book by Ayesha Siddiqa, “Military Inc. - Inside Pakistan's Military Economy” suggests that the total assets under the army control are USD 20 billion, half of it land holdings. An article on Guardian covering the book can be read here. With such huge stakes at hand the Pakistani military will never want peace with India. That would eventually mean no money for weapon stockpiling and hence no source of income.

The relations between India and Pakistan have been at a stage where India should take a step back and look at the larger picture. It is time to shed the obsession with Pakistan and work on others. The new government appears to have done that by engaging with its neighbours. The PM chose Bhutan for his maiden visit followed by Nepal. The response to his visit in both the countries was exceptionally warm. After a long time there are no Indian fishermen in the Sri Lankan prisons. Foreign minister Sushma Swaraj recently concluded her four day multilateral visit to Myanmar. This is a clear departure from the previous government’s stand on foreign engagement.

To put it bluntly, there is no need to go the extra mile to make friends with Pakistan. The country is constantly on the list of failed states, is rife with terrorist and secessionist groups, the economy is in tatters and there is no “real” government to talk to. India would do much better by focusing its energy on the countries which want to work with India and share the fruits of its economic growth.

Lets broaden the road of friendship

The biggest untapped potential is Myanmar. There are two reasons why the country is important. First it was until recently a closed economy run by the military junta. That has changed. Aung Sang Su Kyi has been released from house arrest and is most likely to run for president in the next elections. Second, it is a member of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Indian Affairs has in its previous posts stressed the need to capture the ASEAN market. The prime focus should be on connectivity between the two countries and cross border trade. The much talked about India, Myanmar, Thailand trilateral highway should be put on a priority. Not only will it help Indian businesses but the biggest beneficiary would be the much neglected North East India.

The trilateral highway will also provide much needed market access to land locked Nepal and Bhutan. Private business should take advantage of the resource rich Myanmar and set up manufacturing units, which can supply the products to the ASEAN countries. India’s auto sector, particularly the two-wheeler segment has huge potential in Myanmar and other ASEAN countries. TVS started its manufacturing plant in Indonesia in 2007 and the venture is expected to breakeven this year. Myanmar has its problems, mainly infrastructure, but a first mover advantage might just compensate for the lack of infrastructure, which will be in place, eventually.

With the new government there is a fresh chance to act rationally than emotionally on India’s foreign policy matters. PM Modi was born after India’s independence and has no personal relationship with Pakistan, unlike the previous PM, Mr Singh. The business minded approach of PM Modi and lack of emotional baggage will help him in dealing objectively with our neighbours. Let us see whether the new government seizes the opportunity or repeats the mistakes of the previous governments.

  

The runaway chief minister

Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi’s Chief Minister of 49 days resigned a few hours ago. He blamed the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the supporters, Congress for his resignation. Earlier today he tried to table an anti corruption bill (Jan Lokpal bill), which the Lt. Governor of Delhi has ruled as unconstitutional saying the bill requires approval from the union government. In his defense Kejriwal had sighted previous bills passed without the approval of the union government by the earlier Congress government. The constitutionality of the bill is for the experts to decide. But what Kejriwal did today can be termed as an act of running away from his responsibilities.

I won't play anymore 

He conducted an SMS referendum before accepting the outside support from Congress. However, today there was no such referendum before his resignation. 30% people who voted for Kejriwal during the assembly elections last December have been betrayed. The promises Kejriwal’s Aam Admi Party (AAP) made were hardly fulfilled, apart from a big handout in form of state subsidy for water charges. The most important and long lasting promises like improving the education and health facilities were not even delivered.

What Kejriwal did deliver was a lot of theatrics. Mid night raids on African nationals in name of drugs and prostitution, sit in protests in the heart of the city, sleeping on the pavement overnight, filing high profile police complaints on sub judice matters and making some vague corruption claims. In his 49 days of Chief Ministership he never talked about a long term solution to any of the problems he highlighted during his protest days. His most talked about point, corruption hinged completely on introduction of the Jan Lokpal bill. From our experience we know that bills alone cannot bring corruption down, especially the one that affects the common man. The solution is to remove personnel interference in the processes and automate/digitize them. When there are will be no people involved in the process there won’t be any one asking for a bribe. But Kejriwal chose the high decibel, attention seeking tactics instead of doing actual work.

The reason given by Kejriwal for his resignation today will raise many questions in the coming days. The most obvious one will be, “why didn't he take the legal course to justify the constitutionality of the bill and push it through, even if it took more time”? This is an important question because he has now lost the chance the people of Delhi gave him. He did not use it to deliver his promise but blew it away in indulging in funny theatrics. Even if he returns to power in the next elections with an absolute majority, the constitutionality of the bill will still hold as it does today. Whom shall he blame then?

During the hay days of AAP, just before the elections last year, only 30% of the people in Delhi voted for AAP, this in other words 70% of Delhi rejected AAP. The interesting thing is that AAP got a lot of votes from the fence sitters, people who could not choose between the traditional parties BJP and Congress. It also got a lot of vote from the young voters, many of them first timers. This section is most vulnerable to defection since they see that their party of choice made a lot of noise but did little work in the past 49 days. Delhi is most likely to go to polls once again along with the Lok Sabha polls in April – May. It won’t come as a surprise if AAP actually sees a fall in its vote share.