Indian summer
Changes in Myanmar are
often glacial if not unheard of. Politically isolated by international
sanctions and heavily guarded by its generals, Myanmar has virtually closed
its doors to the world. Extreme poverty and rampant corruption has put lives of
ordinary Burmese in the slow lane. The 8888 uprising (pro democracy movement
lead by Ms Aung San Su Kyi on 8th August 1988) was brutally
crushed by the junta. Since then Ms Kyi has been languishing under house
arrest. She was released in November 2010 with limited freedom to her movement.
Things have started changing ever since. Ms Kyi’s release came six days
after a stage managed general election, which she and her party refused to
recognise. The government is still controlled by ex-generals including the
current president Mr Thein Sein (inaugurated in March 2011), who served four
decades in the armed forces. But it is civilian in its appearance. Mr Sein has
discarded his military uniform in favour of a democratic government. However, a
change in constitution in 2008 vests immense powers in the military. But in Myanmar any
change is a welcome step.
There have been instances in the past when things looked bright on the
banks of the Irrawaddy. In the mid 1990s
and then in late 2002, the generals and Ms Kyi seemed to make some headway
towards reconciliation. Sadly nothing came out of the efforts. It will be
interesting to see if 2011 proves to be Burma’s Indian summer.
Spring in India
India’s relationship with Myanmar has
been cold at the best. The last time Myanmar was
discussed widely in India was
during the twilight days of the Second World War. Japanese army was in Myanmar hoping to control Assam and later Calcutta (now renamed Kolkata). Once the
World War came to an end, Myanmar slipped
into a corner in Indian foreign policy. A second, Myanmar wave struck India during
the prodemocracy 8888 uprising, but pragmatism won the day. Economic changes of
the 90’s and rise of an assertive China put an end to India’s support for
democracy in Myanmar.
India maintained its distance from sensitive
topics of democracy and human rights in Myanmar, while it still engaged
with the Junta keeping an eye on its natural resources. Myanmar has a huge potential to serve India’s growing
demand for minerals and energy. It is also a link between India and
economically successful ASEAN trade bloc. India was
however left behind in its efforts to harness the potential Myanmar has
to offer. Long period of military rule and international sanctions pushed Myanmar closer to China. With
dictatorships like North Korea and
coup prone countries like Pakistan as
close friends, it did not bother China to have another member
in its club.
China made huge investments in Myanmar’s infrastructure with an eye on its vast
natural resources and strategic location close to India. But the
winds of change are blowing now. Like every where else Chinese presence is
being seen as a threat. Earlier this month Myanmar announced that it will
suspend construction of Myitsone dam, a $3.6 billion Chinese hydro
electric power project (due to environmental concerns) in north east of the
country. The project had a capacity to generate 6,000 MW electricity and almost
all of that was supposed to be sold to China’s energy hungry grid. Another
ambitious plan to link Myanmar’s
north eastern state of Shan to the port city of Kyauk
Phyu on the Bay of Bengal (at
a cost of $ 20 billion) was supposed to start in December 2011. After the
scrapping of the power project, the project might get delayed if not stalled.
With Chinese relations souring, Myanmar is
looking at India.
President Mr Thein Sein is visiting India (12 – 15 October 2011)
and will hold talks on increasing bilateral trade and matters of cross border
security. This visit has the potential of transforming the cold relations
between India and Myanmar into
a spring of opportunities.
The shining pagodas
Things are looking up in Myanmar (or at least appearing
so). A quasi democratic government, increased political freedom for opposition,
setting up of labour unions and release of political prisoners are all steps in
the right direction by Myanmar.
Rest of the world will soon recognise these efforts and the sanctions might be
rolled back in a phased manner. India’s
proximity to Myanmar and Myanmar’s strategy of counter balancing China can
spell boon for both the countries.
India’s north eastern states have huge potential
to engage in trade activities with Myanmar. In the long run as and
when the transit corridors with Bangladesh become
operational an extension can be offered to Myanmar,
giving it easy access to sea ports and a larger market to India. Closer
relation between India and Myanmar will also help in handling the
insurgency in north east India.
There is a whole new spectrum of opportunities to be explored by India and Myanmar to forge closer and
deeper ties. What remains to be seen is how long the pagodas can retain their
shine.
