Winds of change in India’s east

Indian summer

Changes in Myanmar are often glacial if not unheard of. Politically isolated by international sanctions and heavily guarded by its generals, Myanmar has virtually closed its doors to the world. Extreme poverty and rampant corruption has put lives of ordinary Burmese in the slow lane. The 8888 uprising (pro democracy movement lead by Ms Aung San Su Kyi on 8^th August 1988) was brutally crushed by the junta. Since then Ms Kyi has been languishing under house arrest. She was released in November 2010 with limited freedom to her movement.

Things have started changing ever since. Ms Kyi’s release came six days after a stage managed general election, which she and her party refused to recognise. The government is still controlled by ex-generals including the current president Mr Thein Sein (inaugurated in March 2011), who served four decades in the armed forces. But it is civilian in its appearance. Mr Sein has discarded his military uniform in favour of a democratic government. However, a change in constitution in 2008 vests immense powers in the military. But in Myanmar any change is a welcome step.

There have been instances in the past when things looked bright on the banks of the Irrawaddy. In the mid 1990s and then in late 2002, the generals and Ms Kyi seemed to make some headway towards reconciliation. Sadly nothing came out of the efforts. It will be interesting to see if 2011 proves to be Burma’s Indian summer.

Spring in India

India’s relationship with Myanmar has been cold at the best. The last time Myanmar was discussed widely in India was during the twilight days of the Second World War. Japanese army was in Myanmar hoping to control Assam and later Calcutta (now renamed Kolkata). Once the World War came to an end, Myanmar slipped into a corner in Indian foreign policy. A second, Myanmar wave struck India during the prodemocracy 8888 uprising, but pragmatism won the day. Economic changes of the 90’s and rise of an assertive China put an end to India’s support for democracy in Myanmar.

India maintained its distance from sensitive topics of democracy and human rights in Myanmar, while it still engaged with the Junta keeping an eye on its natural resources. Myanmar has a huge potential to serve India’s growing demand for minerals and energy. It is also a link between India and economically successful ASEAN trade bloc. India was however left behind in its efforts to harness the potential Myanmar has to offer. Long period of military rule and international sanctions pushed Myanmar closer to China. With dictatorships like North Korea and coup prone countries like Pakistan as close friends, it did not bother China to have another member in its club.

China made huge investments in Myanmar’s infrastructure with an eye on its vast natural resources and strategic location close to India. But the winds of change are blowing now. Like every where else Chinese presence is being seen as a threat. Earlier this month Myanmar announced that it will suspend construction of Myitsone dam, a $3.6 billion Chinese hydro electric power project (due to environmental concerns) in north east of the country. The project had a capacity to generate 6,000 MW electricity and almost all of that was supposed to be sold to China’s energy hungry grid. Another ambitious plan to link Myanmar’s north eastern state of Shan to the port city of Kyauk Phyu on the Bay of Bengal (at a cost of $ 20 billion) was supposed to start in December 2011. After the scrapping of the power project, the project might get delayed if not stalled.

With Chinese relations souring, Myanmar is looking at India. President Mr Thein Sein is visiting India (12 – 15 October 2011) and will hold talks on increasing bilateral trade and matters of cross border security. This visit has the potential of transforming the cold relations between India and Myanmar into a spring of opportunities.

The shining pagodas

Things are looking up in Myanmar (or at least appearing so). A quasi democratic government, increased political freedom for opposition, setting up of labour unions and release of political prisoners are all steps in the right direction by Myanmar. Rest of the world will soon recognise these efforts and the sanctions might be rolled back in a phased manner. India’s proximity to Myanmar and Myanmar’s strategy of counter balancing China can spell boon for both the countries.

India’s north eastern states have huge potential to engage in trade activities with Myanmar. In the long run as and when the transit corridors with Bangladesh become operational an extension can be offered to Myanmar, giving it easy access to sea ports and a larger market to India. Closer relation between India and Myanmar will also help in handling the insurgency in north east India. There is a whole new spectrum of opportunities to be explored by India and Myanmar to forge closer and deeper ties. What remains to be seen is how long the pagodas can retain their shine.

Incredible India Diplomacy

A new avenue

India has tried aid diplomacy, back channel diplomacy and the much talked about cricket diplomacy. These might have worked at a government to government level with different success levels. What is still lacking is India’s effort to establish people to people contact, not just with its immediate neighbours but also with its near abroad. India’s relationship with its neighbours has not been smooth. Wars, political tensions, illegal crossing over, etc have kept India away from its neighbours (it is slowly changing of late).

Attempts like SAARC hardly helped in increasing people to people contact. India has its overseas cultural unit known as the Indian Council of Cultural Relations (ICCR). It provides scholarships, organises cultural events and institutionalised chairs in various countries across the world. Awareness about India has increased in the past few years (more because of its economic fortunes than ICCR), flow of people into India and is still limited. Tourism statistics available for the year 2009 suggest that India received under a million tourists from the SAARC countries. That is just 17% of its total tourist arrivals. India’s near abroad has not been any better, contributing a mere 10% of India’s total tourist arrivals (see chart).

Is India listening?

So what is wrong with India? In the past couple of years India ran the most successful ad campaign abroad. The “Incredible India!” campaign proved immensely popular in western countries and won several awards. It also helped boost India’s tourist arrivals in the years followed by the campaign. Having done so much, India’s immediate neighbourhood has largely ignored it. Attracting its neighbours will serve dual purpose for India. An increase in tourist arrivals will give a boost to the industry in terms of higher foreign exchange receipts and increase people to people contact.

Buddha and places associated with his life can be the key to India’s potential to attract its neighbours. There are several sites in eastern Indian states of Bihar, Jharkhand & Uttar Pradesh, which are significant due to various important incidents in Buddha’s life. India’s Buddhist tourism if developed properly has the potential to attract 1.4 billion people from Bhutan to Japan. Countries like Indonesia and Thailand practice a religion, which is a mix of Buddhism and Hinduism. That makes all of India available for them to explore.

India’s ministry of tourism needs more than just feasibility reports to develop Buddhist tourism. The three states (Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh) where Buddha spent most of his life are the least developed in modern India. Basic infrastructure like surface and air connectivity, utilities like water and electricity and good hotels are conspicuous by their absence. Given the deep religious affiliation of the eastern countries a marketable product from India will be appreciated by Buddhists in East Asia. The potential is huge but there is no political will to extract it. Private investments can quickly create infrastructure and put the region on the international tourism map.

Given the cultural and linguistic differences between India and rest of East Asia, Buddhist tourism can be one common link, which can connect the people. Once people get to know a country better, it opens a lot of doors. Cultural exchanges, identifying common ground, increased confidence due to familiarity of a country will go a long way in indirectly attracting investment in India and exporting products and services to East Asia. It is time India uses tourism diplomacy to win over the neighbours.